That pick-up in growth will not filter through to inflation which was expected to remain far below the European Central Bank's target of just below 2%, averaging 0.3% in 2020… Despite the pick-up, the result is still below the European Central Bank’s target rate of near, but under, 2.0%. LONDON (ICIS)--The eurozone’s inflation rate was unchanged in November at a negative 0.3%, year on year, on the back of lower energy and industrial goods prices, the statistical office Eurostat said on Tuesday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the 19 European Union countries … Find out more here. EURUSD should do well under this general bullish environment and could extend its gains near to 1.22 where the 2018 consolidation top broke down. Data from the UK’s office for national statistics showed that the GDP grew at a pace of 15.5% sequentially in Q3 2020. Inflation forecast is measured in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) or harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for euro area countries, the euro area aggregate and the United Kingdom. Complete data revealed harmonized inflation dropped to 0.7% in March from February’s 1.2%, matching the preliminary estimate. The HICP aggregates are computed as the weighted average of each country’s HICP components. Core inflation which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was steady at 0.2 percent. Germany's benchmark 10-year bond yield hovered near three-week lows on Tuesday, while southern European debt yields kept record lows in sight ahead of inflation … Strength on negative news shows the market sees the eurozone economy improving over 2021 and the unemployment data out this week supports this theory. The Consumer Price Index in the Euro Area decreased 0.30 percent in November of 2020 over the previous month. » Best Australian Dollar rate? Prices fell for both energy products (-8.2 percent, the same as in September) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1 percent vs -0.3 percent). Overall, the euro area economy is forecast to contract by about 8 ¾% in 2020 before recovering at an annual growth rate of 6% next year. Eurozone inflation remains negative on energy, industrial goods. G20 agrees ‘common framework’ on debt relief. The Eurozone consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent from a year earlier in October 2020, matching the previous month's decline, which was the steepest since April 2016. ‘The inflation rate is influenced, among other things, by the reduction in value-added tax that came into force on July 1, 2020.’ Meanwhile, the outlook for the German economy – the largest in the Eurozone – looks increasingly uncertain as the nation’s Covid-19 infection rate passed one-million. » Best euro rate? The annual core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol & tobacco and at which the ECB looks in its policy decisions, was unchanged at 0.2 percent, the lowest on record. The Dax in Germany is –0.7% for the session and the S&P500 is –0.44% in futures trading. This forecast predicts a peak UK inflation rate during this period of 2.1 percent for Q3/2019, with the inflation rate expected to decrease to 1.82 percent by the third quarter of 2020. Inflation thus moved further below the European Central Bank’s target rate of near, but under, 2.0%. The view across the main markets looks very bullish into December – itself a traditionally bullish time of year – as US stock markets push to all-time highs and the US dollar collapses to new 2020 lows. Inflation remains stubbornly low – or non-existent - and came in at –0.3% for November, unchanged since September. The resilience of the Euro on negative data and the strong uptrend suggest it will take more than economic releases to reverse the fortunes of EURUSD. Copyright © 2006-2020 Exchange Rates UK. At the same time, services inflation slowed to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent, while food, alcohol & tobacco prices rose at a faster pace (2.0 percent vs 1.8 percent). Accountability; Organisation; People; Financial reporting; Norges Bank deputy governor resigns over security clearance . Direct access to our calendar releases and historical data. Core inflation rate to remain well below target The stability of euro-zone core inflation at just 0.2% in November is further evidence that the decline in inflation this year has not been primarily due to temporary factors. This view was given added weight on Wednesday as unemployment data came in. On top of that, US fiscal stimulus hopes are growing again as a US Senate proposal for a $908 billion package could be agreed by the end of the year. Exchange Rates UK will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Both headline and core inflation should increase a bit in the first half of 2021, but they will … Continue reading "Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.)" UN and OECD predict further slight growth until 2019, and after that the stabilization of the inflation rate in 2020. Risk markets are slightly lower just ahead of the US open on Wednesday. The Eurozone consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent from a year earlier in October 2020, matching the previous month's decline, which was the steepest since April 2016. While the data has been mixed, the fact that headwinds such as low inflation and even deflation have been shrugged off suggests the market sees more positives than negatives. Save money on your currency transfers with TorFX, voted International Money Transfer Provider of the Year 2016, 2017 and 2018. Risks remain, but these come from politics rather than data and both the late–stage Brexit negotiations and the EU Recovery Fund progress could still cause an upset into the end of the year. Fitch Ratings-London-23 June 2020: Core inflation in the US and the Eurozone is expected to decelerate significantly over the next 18 months given unprecedented declines in GDP and the emergence of historically high levels of spare economic capacity, says Fitch Ratings in its latest economics dashboard. Eurozone GDP figures should show that the region has escaped recession, growing by an estimated 9.4% in the third quarter of 2020. Publish your articles and forecasts in our website. The main components of the HICP are: food, alcohol and tobacco (19 percent of the total weight), energy (11 percent), non-energy industrial goods (29 percent) and services (41 percent). Decisive policy measures will cause public deficits and debt to rise . April 17, 2020 . December 02, 2020. 1 December 2020 Updated about 39 minutes ago Eurozone inflation remains negative ahead of ECB meeting . Meanwhile, prices of food, alcohol & tobacco is expected to rise at a faster pace (2 percent vs 1.8 percent). London City five year rental growth prospects appear strongest at 2.5% pa. European Office Value Analysis- October 2020 » Best Canadian Dollar rate? Any news, opinions, research, analysis, values or other information contained on this story, by Exchange Rates UK, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary. Consumer prices in the Euro Area went down 0.3 percent year-on-year in November of 2020, the same as in each of the previous two months and worse than market forecasts of a 0.2 percent decline, a flash estimate showed. Inflation Rate Mom in the Euro Area averaged 0.16 percent from 1990 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 1.30 percent in March of 2011 and a record low of -1.50 percent in January of 2015. Author. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.3 % in November 2020, stable compared to October 2020.. Inflation in the eurozone remains stable at -0.3% in November. Newsletter. Their goal is to connect clients with ultra competitive exchange rates and a uniquely dedicated service whether they choose to trade online or over the telephone. Data out earlier this week looked pretty ominous for the eurozone and for the Euro. Goldman Sachs analysts this week cut their forecast for 2020 eurozone gross domestic product. » Best Dollar rate? Latest News on Exchange Rates UK. Eurozone Inflation March 2020. At 8.4% in October, the unemployment rate points to a very mild labour market impact from the crisis so far, which brings upside risk to the GDP outlook for next year,” noted ING. EUR/USD Forecast: Euro-Dollar Breaks 1.20 Even As Eurozone Deflation Continues, Foreign Exchange Rates Today 02.12.2020: UK Pound Boosted by Brexit Deal This Week, Euro-Dollar Lifted by German Data, Exchange Rate Forecasts 2021-2022: Euro, Pound, US Dollar, Chinese Yuan and Swedish/Norwegian Krone, MUFG Exchange Rate Forecasts 2020-2021: Pound, Euro, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc, Yuan, US and Canadian Dollars. Eurozone Construction Activity Continues to Fall, Eurozone Retail Sales Rebound More than Expected, Euro Area Producer Prices Rise More than Expected, Euro Area Deflation Extends for 4th Month, Euro Area Factory Growth Revised Higher: PMI, Eurozone Consumer Morale Confirmed at 6-Month Low, Baltic Dry Index Posts 1st Weekly Loss in Three, South African Stocks End at Over 1-1/2-Year High, Italian Shares Gain for 2nd Session but End Week Lower, French Bourse Rises on Friday to Book Small Weekly Gain. On a monthly basis, consumer prices also declined by 0.3 percent. Prices fell for both energy products (-8.2 percent vs -7.8 percent in August) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.3 percent vs -0.1 percent). 09 Dec 2020 - 10 Dec 2020 Online, Virtual. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. The advice provided on this website is general advice only and does not constitute as a financial recommendation. Over the medium term, inflation is expected to increase as it is assumed that the oil price will pick up and as demand recovers. Inflation measures the general evolution of prices. Euro area annual inflation rate and its main components. This figure remains well below the European Central Bank's target of slightly below 2 percent inflation across the eurozone. It is the fourth straight month of deflation as energy cost declined 8.4 percent and non-energy industrial goods were down 0.3 percent. Since then, the pair has once again faded into its current trading range. [ 1] “Big revisions to Eurozone jobs data show that unemployment peaked in July and has since been trending downwards. At the same time, inflation is set to slow for services (0.4 percent vs 0.5 percent). The break higher came just after poor inflation data made aggressive ECB action a near certainty. The weight of a country is its share of household final monetary consumption expenditure in the total of the country’s group. Inflation forecasts are also slightly revised downwards by 0.1 percentage points for 2019 and 2020, to 1.3 percent "mainly due to lower oil prices and a slightly worsening economic outlook". The local HICPs are supplied to the Eurostat by the National Statistical Institutes. January 31, 2020 Harmonized inflation inched up to 1.4% in January from December’s 1.3% and therefore marked the highest reading since February 2019, according to a flash estimate released by Eurostat on 31 January. Euro zone inflation remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month in November, reinforcing European Central Bank concerns that the dip in prices may be more persistent than feared as deflationary forces intensify amid a deep recession. BRUSSELS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 13th February, 2020) The European Commission has not changed its forecast for the eurozone GDP growth in 2020-2021, but has upgraded its inflation forecast. APP The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. After retiring in his early 30s, James started a... - The Pound to Euro exchange rate is -0.06% lower @ €1.11121 on 02.12.2020 - The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is -0.09% lower @ $1.34091 on 02.12.2020 Pound Sterling (GBP)... Nordea forecasts: near-term range trading, dollar to slide during 2021 amid increased global risk taking Nordea looks at the outlook for major currencies with forecasts extending out to the... MUFG expects that the global economy will recover strongly in 2021. According to the Winter 2020 Economic Forecast, the eurozone GDP growth will see a 1. News that vaccines could be rolled out as early as the next few days in the US and UK is giving the rest of the world optimism that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. It turns out that our forecasts for 2020 are less negative, but our forecasts for 2021 are significantly less positive than the IMF and the consensus. Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices. All rights reserved. For the EU, inflation is forecast at 0.6% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021. For the analysis of the other G20 economies, select a country page: The ECB estimates that eurozone inflation fell this year to 1.2 per cent — down from 1.8 per cent in 2018. The annual core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol & tobacco and at which the ECB looks in its policy decisions, eased further to 0.2 percent, the lowest on record. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. IMF estimates that after its peak of 1.8% in 2018, the inflation rate will drop to 1.3% in 2019 and after that will continually grow up until 2024. The Eurozone consumer prices are expected to drop 0.3 percent from a year earlier in October 2020, the same as in the previous month and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed. EUR; MUFG Exchange Rate Forecasts 2020 … But with inflation this low for quite some time and not much improvement expected ahead, the ECB will certainly take action next week . The annual core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol & tobacco and at which the ECB looks in its policy decisions, is likely to remain unchanged at a record low of 0.2 percent. 1991-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast | Calendar | Historical. This is a situation many would associate with a weak currency, but the very next day after the inflation data, the EURUSD broke from its 3–month long consolidation and pushed to exchange rates last seen in 2018. This environment would undermine potential dollar demand and encourage a flow of funds into risk assets, especially with... » Compare best exchange rates Chart 2: European Office Value Analysis, Q2 2020 (bps) Eurozone inflation is forecast to reach 1.5% pa over the next five years. As most central banks are fixated on inflation, this gives ECB every excuse to let loose on further stimulus in its December meeting next week, and all the signals suggest this is exactly what they will do. During 2020, the EUR/USD exchange rate reached its lowest level at 1.0630 at the height of the market collapse in March due to COVID-19, before embarking on a sustainable recovery that brought it to the important psychological level at 1.20 on September 1. Governance. At the same time, services inflation slowed to 0.5 percent from 0.7 percent. “Euro zone inflation remained in negative territory for the fourth straight month in November, reinforcing European Central Bank concerns that the dip in prices may be more persistent than feared as deflationary forces intensify amid a deep recession,” wrote Reuters. Share. Prices fell for both energy products (-8.2 percent, the same as in September) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1 percent vs -0.3 percent). FCA starts to move firms’ data to new platform . It follows a 0.2 percent rise in October. Overall, the baseline foresees HICP inflation declining from 1.2% in 2019 to 0.3% in 2020 and rising to 0.8% and 1.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. That would be … Wed 22 Apr 2020 07.38 BST First published on Wed 22 Apr 2020 07.28 BST... 7.38am BST 07:38 Read full article: UK inflation falls as Covid-19 hits clot...→ UK 2020-04-22 Prices should decline further for both energy products (-8.4 percent vs -8.2 percent in September) while cost of non-energy industrial goods is set to fall at a softer pace (-0.1 percent vs -0.3 percent). Bert Colijn. Member States have reacted decisively with fiscal measures to limit the economic damage caused by the pandemic. Early estimate says eurozone inflation staying put. In contrast, the main upward pressure came from prices of food, alcohol and tobacco (1.9 percent) and services (0.6 percent). Eurozone: Inflation slumps in March as coronavirus hits energy prices. The eurozone DVI rose markedly over the first half of 2020, to its highest level since 2016, though it remained below its historic peaks and within the "moderate risk" category. It is defined as the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by households. Unemployment to rise rapidly We expect the eurozone labour market to be hit hard by the economic downturn (see graph above), despite the introduction of government-subsidised temporary unemployment schemes. The Eurozone consumer prices dropped 0.3 percent from a year earlier in September 2020, the steepest decline since April 2016. EUR/USD Forecast: Euro-Dollar Breaks 1.20 Even as Eurozone Deflation Continues. Shutterstock. The key factors generating the increase in deflation vulnerability were the plunge in the HICP inflation rate and collapsing GDP, which led to a surge in the output gap. This was partly due to US dollar weakness, but also the sense that the worst of the data is over for the eurozone and things will get better from here. EURUSD remains over the 1.20 level and the September high and its breakout is one of the big stories of the week, coming as it has after a 3-month consolidation. As can be expected in a risk-off environment, the US dollar is rallying but remains below the September low and is struggling to break back above 91.5, let alone the 91.8-92 area it must reclaim to have any chance of a sustained recovery. "The outlook for core inflation in both the US and the eurozone is likely to … 2020/12/01. James Elliott is an entrepreneur and an independent trader. The odd one out is the FTSE, which is slightly positive due mostly to Sterling weakness. In Euro Area, the inflation rate is calculated using the weighted average of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Price (HICP) aggregates. Author: Jonathan Lopez. 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